Sorry but the nuclear shock comes first and foremost from the 30TWh of nuclear lost in Germany when it was decide to retire Gundremmingen, Brokdorf, and Grohnde plants in December 2021.
It's not a shock, especially given wind and solar buildout replaced most of those 30 TWh within a year (some 50% effective capacity and 30% thanks to normal wind conditions). German nuclear will drop 30 TWh, but solar+wind is set to increase around 25 TWh, while another 5 TWh should come from energy savings. So far Germany has managed the crisis by marginally decreasing gas consumption, while doubling electricity export (France, Switzerland, Austria). Yes, they had to increase coal use which isn't great, but France is the country that lacks backup power.
Those 30TWh coming in from renewables could effectively do one and one thing only : either replace closed nuclear power plants or replace gas/coal. A very unfortunate choice was made by the German government both for climate and Europe grid price impact.
That France does not have backup (just like most of Europe nowadays) is a consequence of continuous decommissioning of reliable power sources, a deliberate « strategy » from the EU and member states. Hard to see that path continuing post this winter though…
I agree that Germany should have closed the lignite plants before the nuclear ones. but in terms of security of supply, it makes little or no difference. Germany has spare capacity (indeed enough that it will be the main exporter to France this winter).
Again - the loss of Germany's nuclear capacity was known for years, and planned for. The drop in French nuclear production, plus the drop in hydro is largely unexpected (and much larger than the pessimistic estimates made at the beginning of the year.
That's not a shock as it's been planned for several years. The reduced production from France is quite a bit larger than that, at something like 40 TWh over 6 months (and more over the year, depending on when plants can come back online, if at all)
Fair but not the Ember chart you reference distinguishes what was planned vs. not planned so found the sole focus on the French side of the border to explain the drop incomplete if not misleading.
Also a share of the 40TWh missing on French side was also not a “shock” but planned maintenance & fuel reloading.
I would disagree here. Planned maintenance & fuel reloading as in business as usual would mean no drop in French production comparative to 2021 (because they had the same maintenance & reloading). Ergo most if not all of French loss is due to non-planned delays in maintenance (COViD), maintenance overruns, unplanned outages due to corrosion and/or low river levels (July and August). Even if we accept we knew some of this since December (planned production for 2022 310-330 TWh vs expected production closer to 280 TWh), EDF has no plan to counter this other than "we'll import more". Germany at least has ongoing solar and wind expansion which managed to fill in for most of the nuclear power production drop.
All in all French peak nuclear production was 452 TWh (admittedly no longer achievable with Fessenheim closure), while it managed 361 TWh in 2021. So a year-on-year drop of up to 81 TWh or 22-23%.
Sorry but the nuclear shock comes first and foremost from the 30TWh of nuclear lost in Germany when it was decide to retire Gundremmingen, Brokdorf, and Grohnde plants in December 2021.
It's not a shock, especially given wind and solar buildout replaced most of those 30 TWh within a year (some 50% effective capacity and 30% thanks to normal wind conditions). German nuclear will drop 30 TWh, but solar+wind is set to increase around 25 TWh, while another 5 TWh should come from energy savings. So far Germany has managed the crisis by marginally decreasing gas consumption, while doubling electricity export (France, Switzerland, Austria). Yes, they had to increase coal use which isn't great, but France is the country that lacks backup power.
Those 30TWh coming in from renewables could effectively do one and one thing only : either replace closed nuclear power plants or replace gas/coal. A very unfortunate choice was made by the German government both for climate and Europe grid price impact.
That France does not have backup (just like most of Europe nowadays) is a consequence of continuous decommissioning of reliable power sources, a deliberate « strategy » from the EU and member states. Hard to see that path continuing post this winter though…
I agree that Germany should have closed the lignite plants before the nuclear ones. but in terms of security of supply, it makes little or no difference. Germany has spare capacity (indeed enough that it will be the main exporter to France this winter).
Again - the loss of Germany's nuclear capacity was known for years, and planned for. The drop in French nuclear production, plus the drop in hydro is largely unexpected (and much larger than the pessimistic estimates made at the beginning of the year.
That's not a shock as it's been planned for several years. The reduced production from France is quite a bit larger than that, at something like 40 TWh over 6 months (and more over the year, depending on when plants can come back online, if at all)
Fair but not the Ember chart you reference distinguishes what was planned vs. not planned so found the sole focus on the French side of the border to explain the drop incomplete if not misleading.
Also a share of the 40TWh missing on French side was also not a “shock” but planned maintenance & fuel reloading.
All true!
I would disagree here. Planned maintenance & fuel reloading as in business as usual would mean no drop in French production comparative to 2021 (because they had the same maintenance & reloading). Ergo most if not all of French loss is due to non-planned delays in maintenance (COViD), maintenance overruns, unplanned outages due to corrosion and/or low river levels (July and August). Even if we accept we knew some of this since December (planned production for 2022 310-330 TWh vs expected production closer to 280 TWh), EDF has no plan to counter this other than "we'll import more". Germany at least has ongoing solar and wind expansion which managed to fill in for most of the nuclear power production drop.
All in all French peak nuclear production was 452 TWh (admittedly no longer achievable with Fessenheim closure), while it managed 361 TWh in 2021. So a year-on-year drop of up to 81 TWh or 22-23%.