Thanks Jérôme for sharing your views and insights. I'm working engineering tasks related to design (loads on support structures) but also revenue (yield assessments) sides of projects, and I wonder:
With a nominal 10-year standard error (uncertainty) of 6% for a wind farm with a best estimate (p50) net capacity factor of 46%, the corresponding 90%-exceedance threshold (p90) is 42.5%. How do these uncertainty estimate compare with actual revenue uncertainty? My own analysis (using publicly-available data) shows that most wind farm do achieve much larger long-term net yield than their original p90 estimates.
I guess it is worth making a difference between production- and revenue uncertainty, as there are multiple risk-mitigation mechanisms (guaranteed availability, pay-back mechanism when grid is down etc). What do you think, is the revenue risk still at high as it used to be? How could this risk be reduced further?
Thanks Jérôme for sharing your views and insights. I'm working engineering tasks related to design (loads on support structures) but also revenue (yield assessments) sides of projects, and I wonder:
With a nominal 10-year standard error (uncertainty) of 6% for a wind farm with a best estimate (p50) net capacity factor of 46%, the corresponding 90%-exceedance threshold (p90) is 42.5%. How do these uncertainty estimate compare with actual revenue uncertainty? My own analysis (using publicly-available data) shows that most wind farm do achieve much larger long-term net yield than their original p90 estimates.
I guess it is worth making a difference between production- and revenue uncertainty, as there are multiple risk-mitigation mechanisms (guaranteed availability, pay-back mechanism when grid is down etc). What do you think, is the revenue risk still at high as it used to be? How could this risk be reduced further?
All the best. Rémi (C2Wind, DK).